Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
