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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still